The market for alternative meat, eggs, dairy, and seafood products is set to reach at least US$290 billion by 2035, as consumers drive unparalleled growth in plant-, microorganism-, and animal-cell-based alternatives, according to a new report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and Blue Horizon Corporation (BHC).
The report, titled Food for Thought: The Protein Transformation, reveals that the market for alternative proteins will grow from the current 13 million metric tons a year to 97 million metric tons by 2035, when it will make up 11% of the overall protein market in the BCG base case scenario. Faster technological innovation and full regulatory support could speed growth to 22% of the market by 2035.
Benjamin Morach, a BCG MD and partner said, “Alternative proteins could soon match animal protein in taste, texture, and price. We expect parity to spur a new wave of growth, catapulting what is a fairly nascent market today into the mainstream, yielding significant environmental benefits, and facilitating even faster growth.”
The adoption of alternative proteins will have a measurable positive impact on the environment, supporting a number of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals including responsible consumption and production, and zero hunger. The shift to plant-based meat and eggs alone will save more than 1 gigaton of CO2 equivalent by 2035—the equivalent of Japan becoming carbon-neutral for an entire year. It will also save 39 billion cubic metres of water.
While the environmental and food security benefits are encouraging, the key to consumer acceptance is parity, BCG said. Alternative proteins must taste and feel as good as the conventional foods they replace, and cost either the same or less. According to the research, this will happen in three stages, with dates varying to some degree depending on the source of alternative proteins and the products they aim to replace:
- Plant-based alternatives such as burgers, dairy, and egg substitutes made from soy, pea, and other proteins will achieve parity in 2023, if not sooner.
- Alternative proteins made from microorganisms like fungi, yeasts, and single-celled algae will reach parity by 2025.
- Alternatives grown directly from animal cells will reach parity by 2032.
“The alternative protein arena is wide open, and progress is happening fast. There is a real opportunity here for investors to make their moves early and become integral players in the future of food. But to successfully navigate the industry, they must hone their technological knowledge and ensure they’re one step ahead of potential disruptions,” said BHC Managing Partner and CEO Björn Witte.
A February report from MarketsandMarkets has predictions in a similar direction. Plant-based Protein Market by Source (Soy, Wheat, and Pea), Type (Isolates, Concentrates, and Textured), Form, Application (Food(Dairy Alternatives, Meat Alternatives, and Performance Nutrition) and Feed), and Region - Global Forecast to 2026 predicts that the global plant-based protein market will grow from US$10.3 billion in 2020 to US$15.6 billion by 2026, a CAGR of 7.2% during the forecast period.
The major driver for growth is the growing demand for wellness-focused organic food and beverages among consumers, MarketsandMarkets said. Other observations from MarketsandMarkets include:
- Plant-based foods are now mainstream, driven by large-scale manufacturers such as Beyond Meat (US), Impossible Foods (US), Danone (France), and Tyson Foods (US).
- The pea-based protein segment is projected to grow at a higher CAGR during the forecast period, owing to its nutritional benefits and easy integration into final products.
- The Asia Pacific region is projected to grow at the highest CAGR for the plant-based protein market during the forecast period thanks to a young demographic and growing interest in plant-based products, resulting in plant-based protein players expanding their geographic coverage in the region.
- Countries such as China and India with their strong agricultural background have emerged as key entry points into the region as they have a well-established infrastructure suited for the processing of plant-based proteins.
Mintel's Melanie Nambiar, a Southeast Asia Trends Analyst, highlighted Next Gen's launch of TiNDLE, its plant-based chicken brand, in Singapore this March.
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Source: Tindle website. Tindle is billed as "ridiculously good chicken made from plants".
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"Plant-based diets and meat substitutes are gaining momentum in the region, largely due to the potential health benefits associated with meat-free diets. Consumers’ increasing concern for their health and nutritional wellbeing is encouraging them to replace their consumption of animal-based products with plant-based items. This is opening up new possibilities for food manufacturers to explore plant-based alternatives," she said.
Singapore also made the headlines in December 2020 for being the first country in the world to allow meat created directly from animal cells for human consumption. Eat Just said its cultured chicken had been approved for sale in Singapore as an ingredient in chicken bites. The announcement paves the way for a small-scale commercial launch in Singapore of Eat Just’s new GOOD Meat brand, details for which will be disclosed at a later date, the company said.
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