The 2021 Henley Passport Index — the original ranking of all the world’s passports according to the number of destinations their holders can access without a prior visa — lists Japan in No. 1 position if temporary restrictions are not taken into account.
Japanese passport holders able to access 191 destinations around the world visa-free. This marks the third consecutive year that Japan has held the top spot, either alone or jointly with Singapore. Asia Pacific (APAC) region countries’ dominance of the index — which is based on exclusive data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) — now seems firmly established, the authors of the index said.
Singapore is in 2nd position, with access to 190 destinations, while South Korea has a joint 3rd place with Germany. Both countries have a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 189. New Zealand is in 7th position, with visa-free access to 185 destinations, while Australia is 8th, with access to 184 destinations.
Over the index’s 16-year history, the top spots were traditionally held by EU countries, the UK, or the US, and experts suggest that the APAC region’s position of strength will continue as it includes some of the first countries to begin the process of recovering from the pandemic. Due to pandemic-related travel constraints, travellers from both the UK and the US currently face major restrictions from over 105 countries, with US passport holders able to travel to fewer than 75 destinations, while UK passport holders currently have access to fewer than 70.
Dr Christian H. Kaelin, Chairman of leading residence and citizenship advisory firm Henley & Partners and the inventor of the passport index concept, says that the latest ranking provides an opportunity to reflect on the upheaval that characterised 2020.
He said: “Just a year ago all indications were that the rates of global mobility would continue to rise, that travel freedom would increase, and that holders of powerful passports would enjoy more access than ever before. The global lockdown negated these glowing projections, and as restrictions begin to lift, the results from the latest index are a reminder of what passport power really means in a world upended by the pandemic.”
With the first COVID-19 vaccine approved just over a month ago, airline industry experts believe that mandatory vaccination before air travel may soon be a necessity. A technological innovation scheduled to launch in Q121 that will contribute to restoring global mobility is IATA’s Travel Pass initiative — a mobile app that enables travellers to store and manage their verified certifications for COVID-19 tests or vaccines.
Experts also suggest that we cannot return to pre-pandemic patterns for global mobility. Dr Parag Khanna, author of The Future Is Asian and the Founder and Managing Partner of FutureMap in Singapore says that the system will not simply revert to what it was, and that nationality alone will no longer suffice to guarantee safe passage.
“Even for still-powerful passports such as Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and members of the EU, additional protocols will be required to re-attain relatively frictionless mobility,” he said.
Dr Khanna suggests that demographic shifts are likely to usher in far more dramatic changes. He said: “Today’s youth are socially conscious, environmentally aware, and less nationalistic — all of which makes them potentially the most mobile generation in human history. They herald a seminal shift in mobility from being every country for itself to being every person for themself.”
Professor Peter J. Spiro, Charles Weiner Professor of Law at Temple University Law School in the US, said that the pandemic “proved the first major blow to the post-globalisation system of mobility”, and that this will “ultimately accelerate pre-existing trends towards citizenship acquisition as transnational elites look to insure against future shock events”.
Henley's new Global Mobility Report 2021 Q1 has found that travel freedom is currently not only the result of a lack of social freedom or poor economic development but also a failure of risk management, health readiness, as well as monitoring and detection. In other words, global immobility is no longer solely the plight of citizens of less advanced countries.
Discussing the pandemic’s impact on talent migration, Greg Lindsay, Director of Applied Research at NewCities, points to the rise of the so-called ‘digital nomads’ who have residency rights in more than one country.
“The moniker now effectively describes anyone with a COVID-induced mandate to work from anywhere — and thousands, if not millions, are pursuing pandemic arbitrage in their choice of destinations,” he said.
The index report notes that there were relatively few high-profile visa agreements between countries during 2020. A notable exception was the UAE, which has continued its upward trajectory on the Henley Passport Index. The country signed several mutually-reciprocated visa-waiver agreements last year, including a landmark US-brokered agreement establishing formal ties with Israel and granting citizens of each country visa-free access to the other. The UAE now has a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 173 and holds 16th spot on the ranking. At the index’s inception in 2006, the country ranked 62nd, with a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 35.
Commenting in the Global Mobility Report 2021 Q1, Dr Robert Mogielnicki, Resident Scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said there could be more changes in the region: “A strong technology focus weaves together the economic agreements and memorandums of understanding that emerged in the wake of the UAE–Israel normalisation agreement. Sudan normalised relations with Israel in October 2020, and other Arab countries may take similar steps over the coming months,” he said.
Henley & Partners’ CEO Dr Juerg Steffen said that the volatility driven by COVID-19 has pushed the growing appeal of investment migration into overdrive.
“More than being associated with simple ease of travel or acquiring a vacation home, alternative residence and citizenship are now also perceived in terms of their remarkable potential for portfolio diversification, access to global investment and operations, and the creation of a new inheritance and identity for the family," he explained.
"The unexpected and unprecedented events of 2020 have simultaneously exacerbated push factors such as political and economic instability, and reprioritised pull factors, with stability, safety, and access to quality education and healthcare becoming issues of greater concern than ever before. Investment migration is now a standard consideration for international families and entrepreneurs who are looking to hedge volatility and create long-term value through enhanced global mobility.”
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Read the Global Mobility Report 2021 Q1