- Global confidence drops to near-pandemic lows in early 2026
- Middle East conflict reshapes
risk priorities, placing pressure on key hubs like Singapore
Geopolitical instability has overtaken economic risk as the top concern for finance professionals globally as confidence falls close to pandemic-era lows in early 2026. The findings come as conflict in the Middle East intensifies pressures already building across the global economy, reinforcing concerns around financial conditions, supply chains and energy prices.
The latest Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) from ACCA and IMA shows sentiment among finance professionals has deteriorated sharply, marking one of the weakest readings since 2020. The shift reflects a growing recognition that geopolitical, economic and technological risks are increasingly interconnected.
Singapore sits at the centre of these pressures. As a major regional treasury and logistics hub, it is particularly exposed to rising bond yields, US dollar strength and tighter global financial conditions. At the same time, its position as a key aviation and freight hub links it directly to disruption in global trade flows, including those connected to the Middle East.
Across the Asia Pacific, 33% of respondents ranked geopolitical instability as their top risk priority in Q1, well above the global average of 25%. Cybersecurity ranked second at 17% globally, reflecting the growing threat environment for digitally-advanced economies like Singapore. The survey also captures a deeper concern about eroding institutional trust, a theme that resonates in a market where regulatory confidence and stability are core to Singapore’s value proposition.
Daniel Leung, Country Manager – Singapore, ACCA, said: "The report reflects a world in which the traditional boundaries between geopolitical, economic and technological risks have effectively dissolved. For Singapore, a city whose prosperity is built on open trade, financial stability and global connectivity, this convergence of risks demands a new level of strategic vigilance from finance professionals.
"The survey’s findings on rising cost pressures, tighter financial conditions and declining CFO confidence are signals that business leaders here cannot afford to ignore."
The survey showed a sharp decline in confidence among accountants and finance professionals in the early months of 2026. Sentiment is close to the series lows recorded at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, as firms grapple with the fourth major shock to hit the global economy already this decade. Confidence also fell very sharply among chief financial officers taking part in the survey.
While the April two-week ceasefire brought hope to markets of some recovery from the biggest global oil shock since at least the 1970s, the enormous uncertainty clouding the global economy remains. Even if a more durable resolution is found energy and other commodity prices look set to remain elevated.
While geopolitical instability unsurprisingly ranked as the top risk priority for accountants in Q1, it is only the second time since the global risks survey was added to the GECS in Q223 that economic risks have not been the top concern. They were in third place after cyber risks, which were second.
Rachael Johnson, Head of Risk Management and Corporate Governance, ACCA, said: "This shift does not suggest a reduction in economic worries, but a growing recognition of how converging forces shape the macro landscape. Respondents point to AI and cyberthreats amplifying other risks, and emphasise how eroding trust – in institutions, information and leadership – is becoming a defining feature of operating in today’s world."
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| Source: ACCA. The depressed level of confidence is broadly similar levels in Q125, after a sharp decline in the aftermath of the US presidential election, the ACCA said. Confidence fell particularly sharply among CFOs, and is now at its weakest since Q120, albeit well above that record low. |
Rising cost pressures were evident at businesses in Q1, with the percentage of respondents reporting increased operating costs at its highest rate since Q322 in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Given the recent spike in the price of energy and other important commodities and increasing stresses in supply chains, the risk is that cost pressures facing firms will mount over the coming months.
Some of the survey results were a bit more encouraging, likely owing to the resilience of the global economy ahead of the onset of the conflict in the Middle East. The Global New Orders Index registered a solid increase and is now at its historical average level. The Global Employment Index, which captures the hiring and firing decisions of firms, also improved somewhat, while remaining below its historical average.
Alain Mulder, Senior Director, Europe Operations & Global Special Projects at IMA said: "The global economy entered 2026 in decent shape, but enormous uncertainty currently clouds the outlook. Inflation is already beginning to rise sharply, and downside risks to growth will mount the longer energy and other commodity prices remain elevated."
Jonathan Ashworth, Chief Economist, ACCA said: "Major supply shocks create very tricky situations for policymakers. After years of above target inflation, central bankers need to tread very carefully so as not to let the inflation genie out of the bottle. Very high government debt levels also constrain the room for major fiscal support in many countries, even in advanced economies."
Ashworth concluded: "Developments in the Middle East over the coming weeks and months will be absolutely key for global economic prospects over the remainder of 2026."
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Read GECS Q1 2026 at https://www.accaglobal.com/gb/en/professional-insights/global-economics/gecs-q1-2026.html
