In a new report, The Sustainable Plastics Roadmap: Recycling, Bioplastics, and Alternatives, Lux Research forecasts that we have a long way to go towards sustainable plastics.
Lux’s report explores the combined impact of new technologies and approaches on the six major commodity plastics – polyethylene terephthalate (PET), high-density polypropylene (HDPE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), low-density polyethylene (LDPE), polypropylene (PP), and polystyrene (PS) – focusing on the impact of four major types of threats to conventional plastics production: recycling, bio-based polymers, legislation, and alternative materials like paper and metal.
“A combination of negative consumer sentiment about plastics, regulation, and a global focus on sustainability have combined to push the issue of plastics sustainability to the fore,” explained Anthony Schiavo, Research Director at Lux.
“In 2030, 15% of plastics will be sustainable, fuelled primarily by a tripling of global plastics recycling along with strong regulatory action that bans the most problematic types of plastic products. Chemicals companies will face stagnating demand for oil-derived plastics – even including pyrolysis oil – and must invest in recycling to find growth in the plastics space.”
Lux’s initial modelling effort focused on four scenarios highlighting regional differences in policy and infrastructure.
“Even in our most aggressive case, there are major unresolved issues with plastics sustainability,” noted Schiavo. “In the likely case, we expect most groups to miss plastics sustainability goals despite making major strides on recycling and alternatives.
"In addition, the gaps between different types of plastic will grow: The global PET recycling rate could reach as high as 60%, but we expect very little progress in direct PP or PS recycling. Major practical challenges – like the difficulty of waste collection and sorting and the unprofitability of pyrolysis – will still remain in 2030.
"Companies that move quickly to build their own sustainable supply chains will find success, while those that wait for the ecosystem to fix these problems will be left behind.”
